Probing the usefulness of technology-rich bottom-up models in energy and climate policies: Lessons learned from the Forum project

The Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) Forum project aimed to decide what kind of model-based decision support is needed to develop policy making for the transition to a low carbon economy. Starting from decision-support experiences gained in two decision-support methodologies using bottom-up energy models (TIMES-TUMATIM and SEPIA-LEAP), and inspired by Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), six intermediaries, who are responsible for communicating the results of models to decision makers, were asked to pass judgment on both models. Firstly, the relevant policy questions the decision makers want answered were revealed in the course of the Forum process. Secondly, the extent to which the existing models can provide meaningful answers to these questions was explored. In the end, it was established that neither of the two existing models is well suited to representing uncertainties or finding robust strategies under deep uncertainty. As models depicting a radical system change over the next 50-100 years must necessarily deal with deep uncertainties, new research methodologies are needed to improve adaptive policy making.