کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7434556 | 1483520 | 2018 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
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![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE](/preview/png/7434556.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agenda setting, which has now been mostly established, to impact assessment, in which we identify policy pathways to implement the Paris Agreement. Most integrated assessment models currently used to address the economic and technical feasibility of avoiding climate change are based on engineering perspectives with a normative systems optimisation philosophy, suitable for agenda setting, but unsuitable to assess the socio-economic impacts of realistic baskets of climate policies. Here, we introduce a fully descriptive, simulation-based integrated assessment model designed specifically to assess policies, formed by the combination of (1) a highly disaggregated macro-econometric simulation of the global economy based on time series regressions (E3ME), (2) a family of bottom-up evolutionary simulations of technology diffusion based on cross-sectional discrete choice models (FTT), and (3) a carbon cycle and atmosphere circulation model of intermediate complexity (GENIE). We use this combined model to create a detailed global and sectoral policy map and scenario that sets the economy on a pathway that achieves the goals of the Paris Agreement with >66% probability of not exceeding 2â¯Â°C of global warming. We propose a blueprint for a new role for integrated assessment models in this upcoming policy assessment context.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Strategy Reviews - Volume 20, April 2018, Pages 195-208
Journal: Energy Strategy Reviews - Volume 20, April 2018, Pages 195-208
نویسندگان
Jean-Francois Mercure, Hector Pollitt, Neil R. Edwards, Philip B. Holden, Unnada Chewpreecha, Pablo Salas, Aileen Lam, Florian Knobloch, Jorge E. Vinuales,