The renewable energy plan in Morocco, a Divisia index approach

The Moroccan National Energy Strategy (NES) launched in 2008 expects that 42% of the total energy mix to come from renewable sources by 2020; solar, wind and hydroelectric generation capacities are expected to be 2000 MW each. A 12% improvement in the total energy intensity is also targeted by 2020. We use a Divisia index approach to assess past contributions of different factors, including the supply mix, to the fuel requirements in the thermal power generation and to forecast such requirements for the year 2020. The wide range of the forecasts gives insights on the challenges of long-term planning with high renewable penetration rates.