A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports

The German Aerospace Center has developed and applied a “classical” four-step model of forecasting passenger and flight volume at German airports for many years. However, it has become increasingly difficult to update and verify the model because of a lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model based upon co-integration theory, which directly forecasts passenger and flight volume at German airports. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both the classical and new model approaches. The model includes demand shocks and estimated GDP-elasticity is 1.31. The model has been employed to estimate the effects of Brexit on traffic volume at German airports for the years 2016-2018.