Photovoltaic micro-grid in a remote village in India: Survey based identification of socio-economic and other characteristics affecting connectivity with micro-grid

Load prediction is an essential component of the planning process of decentralized electricity supply systems based on micro-grids. However, accurate demand forecasting is a challenging task particularly for rural electrification projects. In this paper, actual operational data of a PV based micro-grid system in Sagar Island of India are analyzed in order to understand the role of different factors affecting households' connectivity, their electricity consumption and potential demands, thereby proposing an approach for planning (and designing) a micro-grid based decentralized electricity supply system. The analysis shows that potential demands for electricity within (as well as outside of) the current reach of the micro-grid are high and future expansion of the system would be effective by taking a 'phased approach' of rural electrification. The analysis also shows that households with certain socio-economic characteristics have higher probability for connecting with the micro-grid and the relationship can be used to predict additional load requirements in case of grid extensions. Few recommendations for enhancing the connectivity further are also included in the discussion section of the paper.