Economies of scale for future lithium-ion battery recycling infrastructure

While lithium-ion battery (LIB) technology has improved substantially to achieve better performance in a wide variety of applications, this technological progress has led to a diverse mix of batteries in use that ultimately require waste management. Development of a robust end-of-life battery infrastructure requires a better understanding of how to maximize the economic opportunity of battery recycling while mitigating the uncertainties associated with a highly variable waste stream. This paper develops and applies an optimization model to analyze the profitability of recycling facilities given current estimates of LIB technologies, commodity market prices of materials expected to be recovered, and material composition for three common battery types (differentiated on the basis of cathode chemistry). Sensitivity analysis shows that the profitability is highly dependent on the expected mix of cathode chemistries in the waste stream and the resultant variability in material mass and value. The potential values of waste streams comprised of different cathode chemistry types show a variability ranging from $860 per ton1 for LiMn2O4 cathode batteries to $8900 per ton for LiCoO2 cathode batteries. In addition, these initial results and a policy case study can also help to promote end-of-life management and relative policymaking for spent LIBs.