An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling

► We deal with the long-term, providing insights to the resource depletion and scarcity indicator discussions. ► A resource-specific economic model of phosphorus extraction incorporates the specific properties of the resource. ► Although essential and non-substitutable, phosphorus resources get depleted under the baseline scenario with extraction only. ► Introducing recycling into this dynamic optimization framework changes the overall extraction program. ► Market price fails as reliable scarcity indicator, shadow price serves better for long-term policy goals.