Energy conservation potential in China’s petroleum refining industry: Evidence and policy implications

• A long-term equilibrium relationship of energy demand in China’s petroleum refining industry is established.
• The sectoral energy conservation potential is evaluated by using scenarios analysis.
• Energy prices, enterprise scale, R&D investment and ownership structure affect electricity intensity.
• Future policy for energy conservation in China’s petroleum refining industry is suggested.

China is currently the second largest petroleum refining country in the world due to rapid growth in recent years. Because the petroleum refining industry is energy-intensive, the rapid growth in petroleum refining and development caused massive energy consumption. China’s urbanization process will guarantee sustained growth of the industry for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to study the energy conservation potential of the petroleum industry. This paper estimates the energy conservation potential of the industry by applying a cointegration model to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and some factors such as energy price, enterprise scale, R&D investment and ownership structure. The results show that R&D investment has the greatest reduction impact on energy intensity, and the growth of market participants (i.e. the decline of the share of state-owned companies) can improve energy efficiency of this industry. Under the advanced energy-saving scenario, the accumulated energy conservation potential will reach 230.18 million tons of coal equivalent (tce). Finally, we provide some targeted policy recommendations for industrial energy conservation.