Hydropower development trends from a technological paradigm perspective

• We propose a novel concept of hydropower development technological paradigm.
• We create a data analysis system to visualize the keyword foci.
• Future trajectories include hybrid power systems and resources from seawater.
• The HDTP consists of a three-stage evolution and a policy framework.
• The HDTP provides a how-to-do solution for the soft path.

Hydropower has long been considered the backbone of the power generation sector in low-carbon and sustainable energy systems. Yet, as reliance on hydropower has been generally declining, the world is awakening to the need to fundamentally rethink the way hydropower is developed and managed. The paper proposes a systematic methodology to research the development trends and find a more sustainable hydropower path. Literature mining using the data analysis system and the technological paradigm theory were adopted to conduct the research. The keyword visualization results were found to meet the laws for the three phases of the technological paradigm. Specific key areas, such as small hydropower plants, hybrid power systems, and hydropower from seawater were identified as past, present and near future trajectories. To further accelerate hydropower development, specific subsidies and incentives need to be provided in areas such as capital costs and technological support. The study paves the way for a soft path solution which complements the hard path in hydropower field.