کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7934937 | 1513046 | 2018 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
An N-state Markov-chain mixture distribution model of the clear-sky index
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper presents an N-state Markov-chain mixture distribution approach to model the clear-sky index. The model is based on dividing the clear-sky index data into bins of magnitude and determining probabilities for transitions between bins. These transition probabilities are then used to define a Markov-chain, which in turn is connected to a mixture distribution of uniform distributions. When trained on measured data, this model is used to generate synthetic data as output. The model is an N-state generalization of a previously published two-state Markov-chain mixture distribution model applied to the clear-sky index. The model is tested on clear-sky index data sets for two different climatic regions: Norrköping, Sweden, and Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The model is also compared with the two-state model and a copula model for generating synthetic clear-sky index time-series as well as other existing clear-sky index generators in the literature. Results show that the N-state model is generally on par with, or superior to, state-of-the-art synthetic clear-sky index generators in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic, autocorrelation and computational speed.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 173, October 2018, Pages 487-495
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 173, October 2018, Pages 487-495
نویسندگان
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widén,