A diagnostic for advance detection of forecast busts of regional surface solar radiation using multi-center grand ensemble forecasts

The magnitude of the forecast error of the EMg was found to be comparable with that of the JMA-MSM. The correlations between the forecast error coefficient (Fc) and LNESg in winter season were higher than summer season. In the top 10%, 5% and 1% forecast busts in five winter months, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) scores of the MCGE in 1- to 6-day ahead forecast indicated statistical significance. The LNESg can therefore be a valuable predictor for detection of forecast busts in the regional forecast.