Analysis of electricity consumption under a photovoltaic micro-grid system in India

For a planner of decentralized renewable energy systems with micro-grids, an accurate load prediction is imperative for proper sizing of the system. For an accurate load projection, the following questions need to be answered: How many households actually get connected to the micro-grid? How much electricity do they actually use? What factors affect their consumption level? How does their consumption level change over time? In this study, an attempt has been made to identify answers to these questions by looking into one of the PV micro-grid rural electrification projects in Sundarban area of West Bengal, India. It is found that the number of beneficiary households has been on increasing trends indicating existence of large potential demands. The monthly electricity consumption of the average household is turned out to be within the range of 0.42-0.66 kW h/day thus not showing any trend of increase over time. In order to identify factors that affect consumption level, a regression model has been developed with two explanatory variables, namely, the total number of connections and the average ambient temperature during supply hours (night). Application of the model would be effective in predicting additional load requirement in case grid extension is planned under the same project to accommodate potential demands. Results of this study would also be applicable to optimization of expansion process of micro-grid systems.