Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs

• Research work and related publications concerning domino effect in the last 30 years were revised.
• Three main research topics in domino effect were identified.
• Currently available tools allow the quantitative assessment and management of domino scenarios.
• Escalation assessment may benefit from more detailed equipment damage models.
• Dynamic tools for consequence assessment may improve impact assessment of domino scenarios.

High-impact low-probability (HILP) accident scenarios in industrial sites are raising a growing concern. Domino effect was responsible of several catastrophic accidents that affected the chemical and process industry, as well as critical infrastructures for energy as oil refineries. However, there is still a poor agreement on assessment procedures to address escalation hazard resulting in domino scenarios. The present study presents a review of the work done in the last 30 years in the field, and a critical analysis of available tools and knowledge gaps concerning domino effect assessment. The analysis of scientific publications concerning domino effect in the process industry resulted in a database of more than 60 documents, addressing three main issues: past accident analysis, models for equipment damage, risk assessment and safety management of domino scenarios. The methods, models and tools developed make now possible the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios in risk analysis and in safety management of industrial sites. Nevertheless, a number of open points still remain, where existing tools may be improved and uncertainty may be reduced.