Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the seismic scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

• Extensive work has been carried out by the US DOE in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.
• We describe uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the seismic ground motion and fault displacement scenario classes.
• Analysis procedures include Latin hypercube sampling, stepwise rank regression, and partial rank correlation coefficients.
• Results analyzed include engineered barrier system conditions, releases from the repository system, and expected dose.

Extensive work has been carried out by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the seismic ground motion scenario class and the seismic fault displacement scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed for the seismic ground motion scenario class: (i) engineered barrier system conditions; (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone; (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository; and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. In addition, expected dose to the RMEI for the seismic fault displacement scenario class is also considered. The present article is the part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.