Evaluating the damage associated with intentional supply deprivation in multi-commodity network

This paper presents a method for evaluating an expected damage associated with nodes deprivation of supply of commodities in multi-commodity networks with a given topology as a result of intentional attack on randomly chosen network links. The method is based on a Monte Carlo simulation approach for evaluating the expected number of nodes deprived of all possible subsets of commodities. It also uses the contest success function that evaluates destruction probability of individual links as a function of per-link attack and defense efforts. It is assumed that the defender has no information about the attacker's actions and the attacker has no information about the network structure. The method allows the analysts to compare different solutions of expected damage reduction under conditions of uncertainty. Illustrative examples are presented.