Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system

The Bayesian network models of redundant systems including parallel system and voting system, taking account of common cause failure and imperfect coverage, are proposed. The Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) and Double Dual Modular Redundancy (DDMR) control systems for subsea Blowout Preventer (BOP) are presented. By applying the proposed Bayesian network models, the reliability of subsea BOP control systems are evaluated at any given time, and the difference between posterior and prior probabilities of each single component given the system failure is obtained. The effects of coverage factor of redundant subsystem and failure rate of single component on reliability of systems are also researched. The results show that the DDMR control system has a little higher reliability than TMR system. To improve the reliability of subsea BOP control systems, the component failure rates of Ethernet switch (ES), programmable logic controller (PLC) and personal computer (PC) should be reduced for TMR system, whereas the failure rates of ES and PC should be reduced for DDMR system. The recovery mechanism of PLC, PC and ES subsystems, and PC and ES subsystems should be paid more attention for TMR and DDMR control systems, respectively.

► The common cause failure and imperfect coverage are modeled by Bayesian networks.
► The reliabilities of subsea BOP control systems are studied by Bayesian networks.
► The ES, PLC and PC have great effects on TMR control system.
► The ES and PC have great effects on DDMR control system.