Network reliability analysis of complex systems using a non-simulation-based method

Civil infrastructures such as transportation, water supply, sewers, telecommunications, and electrical and gas networks often establish highly complex networks, due to their multiple source and distribution nodes, complex topology, and functional interdependence between network components. To understand the reliability of such complex network system under catastrophic events such as earthquakes and to provide proper emergency management actions under such situation, efficient and accurate reliability analysis methods are necessary. In this paper, a non-simulation-based network reliability analysis method is developed based on the Recursive Decomposition Algorithm (RDA) for risk assessment of generic networks whose operation is defined by the connections of multiple initial and terminal node pairs. The proposed method has two separate decomposition processes for two logical functions, intersection and union, and combinations of these processes are used for the decomposition of any general system event with multiple node pairs. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical network examples with a variety of system definitions, and is applied to a benchmark gas transmission pipe network in Memphis TN to estimate the seismic performance and functional degradation of the network under a set of earthquake scenarios.

► We develop a new system reliability method for civil infrastructure networks.
► The method extends the application of RDA to multiple node pair networks.
► The method is demonstrated by general system events of network examples.
► The method carries out a rapid risk assessment of multiple hazard scenarios.
► The method demonstrates advantages of non-simulation-based methods over MCS.