کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
806375 | 1468263 | 2012 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 200,000 years is simulated with a finite difference thermomechanical model based on the shallow ice approximation. The model depends on the surface temperature, the ice accumulation rate, the geothermal heat flux and the basal sliding coefficient, which are estimated with large uncertainty. A second-order approximation of the model in a neighborhood of the reference values for these parameters permits the computation of both local and variance-based sensitivity indices. The results show the dominant effect of the surface temperature on the model predictions.
► The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 200,000 years is simulated.
► A finite difference thermomechanical coupled model is applied.
► Local and variance-based sensitivity for uncertain input parameters is computed.
► A second-order approximation around the reference values of the parameters is used.
► The surface temperature shows a dominant effect on the model predictions.
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 107, November 2012, Pages 64–70