کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
806420 905331 2011 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Quantification of margins and uncertainties of complex systems in the presence of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Quantification of margins and uncertainties of complex systems in the presence of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty
چکیده انگلیسی

Performance assessment of complex systems is ideally done through full system-level testing which is seldom available for high consequence systems. Further, a reality of engineering practice is that some features of system behavior are not known from experimental data, but from expert assessment, only. On the other hand, individual component data, which are part of the full system are more readily available. The lack of system level data and the complexity of the system lead to a need to build computational models of a system in a hierarchical or building block approach (from simple components to the full system). The models are then used for performance prediction in lieu of experiments, to estimate the confidence in the performance of these systems. Central to this are the need to quantify the uncertainties present in the system and to compare the system response to an expected performance measure. This is the basic idea behind Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU). QMU is applied in decision making—there are many uncertainties caused by inherent variability (aleatoric) in materials, configurations, environments, etc., and lack of information (epistemic) in models for deterministic and random variables that influence system behavior and performance. This paper proposes a methodology to quantify margins and uncertainty in the presence of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. It presents a framework based on Bayes networks to use available data at multiple levels of complexity (i.e. components, subsystem, etc.) and demonstrates a method to incorporate epistemic uncertainty given in terms of intervals on a model parameter.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 96, Issue 9, September 2011, Pages 1114–1125
نویسندگان
, , ,