Prognostics for integrity of steam generator tubes using the general path model

Concerns over reliability assessments of the main components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) related to aging and continuous operation have increased. The conventional reliability assessment for main components uses experimental correlations under general conditions. Most NPPs have been operating in Korea for a long time, and it is predictable that NPPs operating for the same number of years would show varying extent of aging and degradation. The conventional reliability assessment does not adequately reflect the characteristics of an individual plant. Therefore, the reliability of individual components and an individual plant was estimated according to operating data and conditions. It is essential to reflect aging as a characteristic of individual NPPs, and this is performed through prognostics. To handle this difficulty, in this paper, the general path model/Bayes, a data-based prognostic method, was used to update the reliability estimated from the generic database. As a case study, the authors consider the aging for steam generator tubes in NPPs and demonstrate the suggested methodology with data obtained from the probabilistic algorithm for the steam generator tube assessment program.