System dynamics, uncertainty and hydrocarbon resources modelling: A systematic review

Hydrocarbon resources represent a cardinal source of energy. Numerous studies have employed the system dynamics (SD) approach for hydrocarbon resources modelling. This paper reviews relevant literature, discusses the concept of uncertainty in SD-based modelling for energy resources estimation, and summarizes methods used to manage uncertainty. Although the SD methodology has the capability to manage uncertainties on a stand-alone basis, it is insufficient for handling dynamically complex issues characterized by several high levels of uncertainties, known as deep uncertainties. Augmentation with multi-method approaches improves the thoroughness of analysis and allows evaluation of many different policy options. We also highlight topics for researchers, policy makers, and energy planners who are faced with the responsibility of making policy decisions in the face of uncertainty.