Integrating factor analysis and the Delphi method in scenario development: A case study of Dalmatia, Croatia

• A specific approach to scenario construction was developed.
• The process combined a quantitative and a qualitative step.
• Factor analysis was used in recognising underlying driving forces.
• The Delphi method was used to examine possible future developments of factors.
• This approach is applicable in spatial research and planning.

When developing scenarios, it is challenging to integrate quantitative and qualitative methods. This paper describes a new approach to scenario construction for spatial research and planning that was used to conduct a case study of constructing explorative development scenarios for Dalmatia, Croatia, until 2031. The methodology of scenario development consisted of: 1. factor analysis, which was used to reduce and classify a large set of data on different aspects of spatial development and to isolate underlying factors of development characteristics. These factors were used as variables to develop a regional typology; and 2. two rounds of the Delphi method, where an interdisciplinary panel of experts examined possible future developments in the light of aforementioned factors supplemented with other, nonquantifiable factors. Multivariate analysis was proven to provide a sound, but also complex, quantitative foundation for recognising the underlying driving forces of development characteristics, while the participation of experts in the Delphi panel significantly improved recognition and interpretation of the factors crucial to scenario development.