Spatially and temporally varying associations between temporary outmigration and natural resource availability in resource-dependent rural communities in South Africa: A modeling framework

Migration-environment models tend to be aspatial within chosen study regions, although associations between temporary outmigration and environmental explanatory variables likely vary across the study space. This research extends current approaches by developing migration models considering spatial non-stationarity and temporal variation – through examination of the migration-environment association at nested geographic scales (i.e. whole-population, village, and subvillage) within a specific study site. Demographic survey data from rural South Africa, combined with indicators of natural resource availability from satellite imagery, are employed in a nested modeling approach that brings out distinct patterns of spatial variation in model associations derived at finer geographic scales. Given recent heightened public and policy concern with the human migratory implications of climate change, we argue that consideration of spatial variability adds important nuance to scientific understanding of the migration-environment association.

► Temporary outmigration in resource-dependent communities in rural South Africa.
► Role of environmental and socio-economic variables for temporary outmigration.
► Effects of changing geographic scale and non-stationarity on models.
► Subvillage scale community-level dynamics could impact migration decisions.
► Environmental change impacts model associations even at very local scales.