A geographical and temporal analysis of U.S. thermoelectric withdrawals in comparison to renewable water supplies

Thermoelectric power production is the largest source of water withdrawals in the U.S. In this study, multiple regression modeling was used to identify the significant influencing factors of thermoelectric withdrawals and evaluate their impacts. The derived regression model was then used to forecast future freshwater thermoelectric withdrawals for large-scale energy production and USGS hydrologic regions through 2035 under three scenarios of cooling tower installation and once-through cooling system retrofitting. At the national level, freshwater thermoelectric withdrawals are forecast to increase by 10 bgd and 2 bgd in the high and medium scenarios, but decrease by 7 bgd in the low scenario. At the regional level, in addition to arid inland hydrologic regions such as the Colorado, Rio Grande, and Great Basin, more humid hydrologic regions such as the Texas-Gulf will face increasing issues of water availability for thermoelectric cooling with a consequent need to shift to recirculating systems.

► Analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the once-through and recirculating cooling systems in U.S.
► Develop a regression model at the EMM region level to identify the significant determinants of thermoelectric withdrawals.
► Make projections of future thermoelectric withdrawals by EMM region till 2035 based on high, medium, and low scenarios.
► Make projections of future thermoelectric withdrawals by HUC2 region till 2035 based on high, medium, and low scenarios.
► Evaluate water stress level in each HUC2 region based on the ratio between projected thermoelectric withdrawals and its renewable water supply