Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.