Risk factors and distribution for peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Mainland China

Between December 2013 and January 2016, a major outbreak of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) has been registered in Mainland China. 39184 cases have been reported from 22 provinces. Animal losses and economic damages were alarming and it cannot yet be ruled out that the virus may spread to as of yet unaffected areas. Using data collected during this outbreak, we used maximum entropy model to identify risk factors potentially influence the prevalence of PPR. In cooperation with Department of Veterinary Services of PR China, who provided all essential data, we were able to evaluate the collinearity of risk factors and their influence on the disease transmission. Spearman rank correlation analysis and jackknife test were the main statistical tests we applied. Our findings indicate that the disease prevalence significantly correlates with mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, age, male/female sex, the number of live animal markets and the quantum of trade. Based on the final results of our risk factor analysis, we continued to realize a geographical analysis. From the finally prediction map, we find that provinces of Xinjiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Yunnan and Guizhou have high risk of disease outbreaks. We expected that the results of our study can be utilized to develop solutions for targeted disease prevention and aid management.