Urban Rail Transit Risk Evaluation with Incomplete Information

In recent years, the urban rail transit risk analysis has been obtained great concerns from wide fields in the society. The hazards of urban rail transit evaluation play important role in the urban rail transit risk analysis. However, lacking of guarantee of the source and assurance of the evaluation information, so the characteristics of hazard can hardly be quantized or always be in the context of uncertainty. Under such environment, an improved DS/AHP method is provided in this study for the evaluation of hazard source. Firstly, the identification and evaluation of urban rail transit hazard sources are proposed according to different methods. Secondly, the evaluation system analysis is provided from three aspects--- frequency, extent of damage and uncontrolled. Thirdly, the improved DS/AHP method is employed for risk evaluation to determine the order of different hazard sources. At last, a numerical example is provided for the hazard risk analysis to verify the feasibility of the method.