Stochastic Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model under Emergent Incidents

Urban emergent incidents affect transportation operation and result in the rapid spread of traffic congestion in network, so it's necessary to analyze the dynamic changes of traffic flow distribution under emergent incidents. Therefore, model and algorithm for the dynamic traffic assignment problem under emergent incidents have been highly concerned by government and scholars. This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic traffic assignment (SDTA) model based user optimum considering the loss of node capacity and change of network structure under traffic and environment emergencies. The Nested Logit model is used to describe the departure time and path choice. Then, the variational inequality formulation is proposed and discrete dynamic network loading algorithm is designed and validated by a numerical example. The results show that the model and algorithm can be used to express the development trend of actual dynamic network under emergency.