Method for Prediction of Fragment Impact Response Using Physics Based Modeling and Statistical Analysis

A method for determining the response of a munition to the Fragment Impact (FI) stimulus based on hydrocode modeling and statistical analysis is presented. A modified version of the Hugh James Criterion is coupled to a logistic regression technique to obtain a normalized distance from initiation threshold as determined experimentally through FI tests. The method has been shown to correlate well with observations at multiple impact velocities with various configurations of FI mitigation schemes. A total of 65 FI shots have been completed to date on the TOW 2B warhead through two different shotlines, and the data will be presented here. The two shotlines are through the cylindrical section and the boattail section of the warhead. When fit to the overall data set, 51 out of 65 observations are correctly categorized.