Development and Production Costs Estimating for Aviation Equipment Based on Uncertainty Design

The estimation accuracy of aviation equipment development and production cost has very important significance on program budget management. At the beginning of aviation equipment development, the requirement has many unknown factors and the equipment design has uncertainty problem. That lead to the uncertainty of equipment's cost. Many researches usually assume the uncertainty in equipment design to certainty, ignoring the uncertainty of the system itself essentially. Theoretically, the efficiency of aviation equipment is an important factor which affects cost. To improve equipment's efficiency, the development needs more advanced processing equipment, more advanced materials and more system test and so on, which will cause higher cost. Therefore, in view of uncertainty, this study takes equipment effectiveness index as a new variable and an impact factor to research its reflection on development and the production cost. At the beginning, this paper shows the engineering practice of aviation equipment design uncertainty. Considering the reflection of equipment's effectiveness on development and production cost, cost estimation model based on effectiveness has been established. Using mathematical theories such as Monte Carlo Simulation and interval number, an evaluation model of development and production cost for aviation equipment is established under the condition of uncertainty design.