A Reliability Prediction Method Based on Simulation Analysis

At present, customers demand more complex and reliable products to be developed with shorter timeand more cost effectiveness. In the product development process, the traditional approach to reliability specification has been based on unrealistic reliability prediction by usingstandards, such as Mil-Hdbk-217 in the specific case of electronics equipment. In China at the product development stage, the reliability prediction is based on GJB 299.Often, the prediction methodology used assumes an exponential failure rate, meaning that random failures and faults are inevitable. And the reliability prediction method based on GJB 299 is not relevant to product design parameters. There need a new reliability prediction method to address the challenges that we face during the product developmentprocess. In this paper, we firstanalyses the component reliability of the product by reliabilitysimulation based on physics failure theory. Then inputting the results of components reliabilitysimulation and components degradation information to the functional model, we discuss the product reliability by reliability functional simulation. It is shown that we can accurately predict the reliability in the product development process by the proposed method.