Scenario Analysis for Optimization of Pumping Schedules in Complex Water Supply Systems Considering a Cost-risk Balancing Problem

Optimization of pumping schedules in complex supply systems is considered when defining activation of emergency and costly water transfers under drought risk. An optimization procedure has been developed based on scenario analysis. The model allows identification of the optimal decision rules by balancing the risk of water shortages under different hydrological scenarios and the cost of pumping stations operating and maintenance. Scenario analysis optimization provide the resource management authority with information defining optimal activation thresholds for pumping stations assuring the water demand level fulfilment for users and activities (irrigational, civil, industrial, etc). The model application has been developed for optimization policy and energy conservation in shortage condition in the South-Sardinia (Italy) water supply system. The obtained results define a cost-risk trade-off considering water shortage probability and minimizing operative costs in shortage conditions.