Research on Area Risk Assessment for Chemical Park based on Domino Effect Model

The area risk assessment model in consideration of domino effect has been build in order to carry out the overall quantitative risk assessment for chemical parks, then to provide a scientific basis for making safety plan and safety management of chemical parks. The consequence and probability model of domino effect initiated by fire and explosion has been established from three respects of heat load, blast wave load and explosion fragment load, according to domino effect mechanism. The area risk assessment procedure based on the domino effect is proposed, and the calculation models of individual risk and social risk on the basis of the domino extension probability are established taking target unit as the core. The conclusion of the example shows that the domino effect will increase significantly the individual risk value of the region, so it is very necessary to analyze the domino effect of chemical parks.