A Safety Approach to Predict Human Error in Critical Flight Tasks

Based on accident analysis in recent years, aircrew error has become an increasingly important theme in the aviation industry, due to its crucial contribution to air incidents. The aircrew's task, to provide safe flight under icing condition, has been analyzed in this research. The Human Error Probabilities of each action within the task are calculated in the light of the HEART taxonomy, followed by the prediction of total task failure rate. A tentative validation has been performed according to operational data of the US civil air transport system. The results show that the HEART technique can be used to predict human error rates of critical tasks in the aviation domain.