Application of Expert Judgment Method in the Aircraft Wiring Risk Assessment

The FAA has developed a risk assessment means for the electrical wiring interconnection system, in which expert judgment plays an important role. However, the huge number of complex judgment will lead to high probability that the experts make the wrong choice. An evaluation and validation of the expert judgment before using the data is necessary. This paper discusses and reviews the evaluation method for the expert judgment from the two aspects: the validation of each expert judgment and the coefficient of agreement as a group, and gets certain feedbacks though an application of the method in a Chinese aircraft type.