The hot hand and the cold hand in professional golf

Previous studies have shown that people believe in the existence of the “hot hand” effect: recent good performances make one more confident and lead to more good performances. However, economists have found little evidence that such an effect is present. Motivated by models of momentum from psychology, this study examines hole-by-hole performances of four types of professional golfers, which is perhaps the ideal environment to evaluate whether such an effect exists. The results show that evidence consistent with the existence of hot hand and cold hand can be masked by looking only at overall mean impacts because the existence and magnitude of the effects can vary with the player's experience.

► The first study of the hot hand effect to be motivated by models from psychology.
► Theory suggests that the link between past results and performance depends on many factors and is tenuous, but it should vary with player experience.
► Past studies do not consider this, evaluating overall mean impacts across all players.
► Past outcomes are in fact found to impact players differently depending on their experience.
► These effects are hidden if overall mean impacts across all players are examined.