Trapping method and quota observance are pivotal to population stability in a harvested parrot

Wildlife trade is currently regulated mainly in terms of 'volume', i.e. the number of individuals taken from the wild or numbers appearing on the market in a given year. To explore the possible effects of other factors such as capture methods, variability in annual harvest, and habitat, we built and validated a demographic model for a closed population of Grey Parrots Psittacus erithacus on Príncipe, and ran 50-year simulations for the population under different harvest scenarios. There was a fine line between capture volumes being robustly sustainable (11% harvested) and dramatically unsustainable (15%). Population trajectories were highly sensitive to changes in adult survivorship, such that the inclusion of even a small number of adults among the harvest had a far greater impact than a similar number of juveniles. High annual variation in capture rate (reflecting poor national management of trade) could make the difference between sustainability and non-sustainability if quotas were set around critical harvest volumes. While these patterns may be common to large traded parrots generally, sufficient habitat and secure nest sites exist on Príncipe to render the effects of habitat loss on the island less important than in most other situations. If trade in parrots is to continue sustainably it will require reliable demographic and harvest data and must eliminate instability in quota observance (exceeded quotas are not compensated by shortfalls in other years) and, especially, the indiscriminate capture of adults.