Modeling the effects of urbanization on grain production and consumption in China

The impact of rapid urbanization on food security of China has received considerable attention. It is not clear whether China can strike a balance between urbanization and food security, especially grain security. There have been numerous studies examining the effects of urbanization on grain production or consumption, but few studies have yet analyzed grain balances. Based on the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWARMEM), this paper explores the impacts of urbanization on national and regional grain balances through different scenarios. The CWARMEM is a global partial equilibrium multimarket model which captures the differences between urban and rural residents as well as the effects of globalization. The results show that urbanization has a small negative effect on maintaining grain self-sufficiency. Despite of that, China is able to achieve the objective of grain security set by its policymakers. Moreover, urbanization changes regional grain balances across China: The position of Northeast China and North China, as two dominant grain suppliers of China, will be weaken; Central China and East China will increase dependence on other grain suppliers; the grain surplus of Northwest China will increase slightly. Besides, in terms of grain category, urbanization helps China achieve self-sufficiency in food grain (rice and wheat), while expands deficit of feed grain (maize).