کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8876489 | 1623755 | 2018 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل ریاضی برای اولویت بندی راهبردهای حذف
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کلمات کلیدی
قلع و قمع، مدل ریاضی، مدل اقتصادی، بار بهداشتی،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Malaria and some other tropical diseases are currently targeted for elimination and eventually eradication. Since resources are limited, prioritisation of countries or areas for elimination is often necessary. However, this prioritisation is frequently conducted in an ad hoc manner. Lower transmission areas are usually targeted for elimination first, but for some areas this necessitates long and potentially expensive surveillance programs while transmission is eliminated from neighbouring higher transmission areas. We use a mathematical model to compare the implications of prioritisation choices in reducing overall burden and costs. We show that when the duration of the elimination program is independent of the transmission potential, burden is always reduced most by targeting high transmission areas first, but to reduce costs the optimal ordering depends on the actual transmission levels. In general, when overall transmission potential is low and the surveillance cost per secondary case compared to the cost per imported case is low, targeting the higher transmission area for elimination first is favoured.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 455, 14 October 2018, Pages 118-130
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 455, 14 October 2018, Pages 118-130
نویسندگان
Nakul Chitnis, Allan Schapira, Christian Schindler, Melissa A. Penny, Thomas A. Smith,