Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong

This work aims to reveal the mechanism behind the “skip-and-resurgence” patterns using mathematical modelling and likelihood-based inference techniques. We found that pig-to-pig transmission increases the size of JEV epidemics but is unlikely to maintain the same level of transmission among pigs. The disappearance of JEV human cases in 2006-2010 could be explained by a sudden reduction of the population of farm pigs as a result of the implementation of the voluntary “pig-rearing licence surrendering” policy. The resurgence could be explained by of a new strain in 2011, which increased the transmissibility of the virus or the spill-over ratio from reservoir to host or both.