The where and when of likely and unlikely events

Do people think likelihood is distributed evenly or do they have an intuition about the types of contexts in which likely and unlikely events tend to occur? Drawing on a probability-as-distance framework, the current research suggests that people relate probability to other distance dimensions, expecting unlikely events to more often happen in distant contexts and likely events in near contexts. Evidence for this association emerges using within-subject designs where participants directly assign low and high likelihood events to near and distant contexts (Studies 1 and 2), as well as between-subjects designs that focus on a variety of related judgments, including willingness to bet on favorites and long-shots (Study 3), decisions about insurance purchases (Study 4), and expectations regarding games of chance (Study 5). Results appear consistent across outcomes of differing valence (Study 5). Implications and future research directions are discussed.

► Probability is conceptualized as distance.
► Examine if people relate probability to other distance dimensions.
► People expect unlikely events to occur in distant contexts; likely in near contexts.
► Effects on direct assignment to contexts and variety of related decisions.