کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
888856 913577 2010 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری بازاریابی و مدیریت بازار
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism
چکیده انگلیسی

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes - Volume 111, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 33–47
نویسندگان
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