Biased memory for prior decision making: Evidence from a longitudinal field study

This research reveals systematic effects of outcome and behavior knowledge on memory for prior decision making in a three-wave longitudinal study of retrospective predictions and intentions involving the 1999–2000-millennium change. We demonstrate a pervasive consistency bias in memory for prior decision making, such that not only are remembered predictions more consistent with experienced outcomes than actual predictions, but also that remembered intentions are more consistent with behavior than actual intentions. These new findings reveal how outcome and behavior knowledge jointly influence memory reconstruction, reflecting multiple cue usage, and they identify the contribution of reconstruction processes in memory for prior decision making. Implications for research and theories on memory and decision making are discussed.