Linking affect and performance of an international level archer incorporating an idiosyncratic probabilistic method

ObjectiveTo describe and operationalize a method of estimating the probability of varied performance levels (e.g., poor, moderate, or optimal) using multiple within-competition introspective affective measures (i.e., arousal and pleasantness) and heart rate (HR) of a professional female archer.Method and DesignThe probabilistic method utilized in this study explores the dynamic nature of within-competition: (a) affect and performance levels; and (b) HR and performance levels by first using ordinal logistic regression, and then implementing an algorithm that converts the regression coefficients into five distinct Individual Affect-related Performance Zones (IAPZs). IAPZs are defined as that range of affective intensity or HR within which an individual has the highest probability of performing at a specific performance level (e.g., poorly, moderately, or optimally). The archer's IAPZs were determined over multiple competitions at five different shooting distances (18, 30, 50, 60, and 70 m).ResultsThe findings illustrate the archer's (a) unique IAPZs at each shooting distance, and (b) affective state fluctuations among her IAPZs during competition.ConclusionsThis method of determining IAPZs can be applied to individual athletes for: (a) describing affective states and arousal levels associated with various performance levels; (b) use as descriptive data to infer consistency and stability of his or her states; and (c) use in designing psychological interventions with the goal of “stabilizing” the athlete's affective responses in a desirable fashion.