Will the momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation

• We adopt an explanatory case study approach to develop theory of disruptive innovation.
• We offer a hypothesis on when market disruption is likely to be successful.
• We test this hypothesis for the emergence of full-electric vehicles.
• We finding that our nested hypothesis for market disruption cannot be rejected.

In this paper we study to what extent electric propulsion is disrupting ‘the order’ in the automotive industry with six extensions to Christensen's notion of disruptive innovation (1997). For decades the automotive sector has relied on the internal combustion engine (ICE) as the established propulsion technology, but due to environmental regulation and geo-political scarcity problems associated with fossil fuel use, electric propulsion is increasingly applied as sole or additional power source.We elaborate the Christensen typology, rooted in industrial analysis, with a regime evolution framework based on changes in technology and the institutional context of production and use, with special attention to consumer perspectives and government regulation. We offer a hypothesis for structural conditions for market disruption and test this hypothesis against the development trajectory of full-electric vehicles (FEV). Drawing on evidence from a range of recent FEV studies, our analysis suggests that the disruptive niche of full-electric mobility is currently insufficient to displace the ICE regime.