Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach

• CO2 emissions from road freight transport are forecasted with Delphi method.
• Qualitative data from the first Delphi round is quantified in the second round.
• Cluster analysis is utilized to create six scenarios for 2030.
• All scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level.

Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%.