Resolving or managing uncertainties for carbon capture and storage: Lessons from historical analogues

• We analyse the uncertainties facing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.
• Historical case studies show that these uncertainties can, in principle, be resolved.
• The case studies demonstrate multiple links between these uncertainties.
• Caution is needed when applying lessons from history to emerging technologies like CCS.
• Policies & strategies to support CCS need to take lessons from history into account.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are often highlighted as a crucial component of future low carbon energy systems in the UK and internationally. Whilst these technologies are now in the demonstration phase world-wide, they are still characterised by a range of technical, economic, policy, social and legal uncertainties. This paper applies a framework for the analysis of these uncertainties that was previously developed by the authors to a historical evidence base. This evidence base comprises nine case studies, each of which focuses on a technology that is partly analogous to CCS. The paper's analysis of these case studies examines the conditions under which the uncertainties concerned have been at least partly resolved, and what lessons can be drawn for CCS. The paper then uses the case study evidence to discuss linkages between the uncertainties in the analysis framework, and how these linkages differ from those that were originally expected. Finally, the paper draws conclusions for the methodological approach that has been used and for strategies to develop and deploy CCS technologies.