Preparing for the future: Development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation

• The paper describes two alternative views of the origin of uncertainty.
• It shows Intuitive Logics to be based on the deterministic view.
• It shows this to be the origin of its deficiency in relation to uncertainty.
• It presents in detail a non-deterministic alternative approach.
• It describes how this approach can be implemented in a workshop setting.

This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning.