Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique — The case of transport and climate

Two recent trends in scenario making are the starting point of this study: the combination of qualitative and quantitative materials, and inclusion of many kinds of experts. We propose a new scenario technique Q2 that answers to these calls, and describe it step-by-step. Q2 scenarios consist of Delphi, cluster analysis of numerical material, qualitative content analysis of interviews, and a futures table. Most of the required tools and methods are well documented and commonly used, but their combination is original, particularly the explorative and disaggregative way both types of material are analysed and compressed into a futures table and further developed into scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology through a case: the growing Finnish transport sector that faces severe pressure to cut CO2 emissions. Finnish experts were asked about their views of the future up to 2050, using an interactive and user-friendly questionnaire, and interviews. An expertise matrix was formed in order to achieve a comprehensive coverage in terms of key expertise, education, organisation, age, and gender. By widening the concept of expertise, it is possible to get a large variety of viewpoints. The resulting scenarios reveal that reaching the CO2 targets will require a palette of technical, infrastructural, and behavioural changes.

► Quantitative and qualitative materials can fruitfully be combined in Q2 scenarios.
► Use of an expertise matrix helps to ensure variety in a Delphi panel.
► An interactive Delphi questionnaire is demonstrated for scenario work.
► Expert-based transport scenarios up to 2050 are described for Finland.
► Meeting CO2 targets requires technical, infrastructural and behavioural changes.