Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries

The paper presents a broadband diffusion analysis for European OECD member countries. The Bass diffusion model is used to estimate the total number of potential adopters, the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation. The analysis shows that if the present trends continue broadband services will not reach the 100% penetration rate in the near future. Based on these findings, the question of a possible revitalization is discussed with a focus on those segments of the population which are slower to adopt broadband. A survey of households in rural areas provides preliminary investigation of reasons for continuing non-adoption, such as social habits and lack of both knowledge and interest.

► Broadband access diffusion follows very similar patterns to other technologies.
► Broadband services in European countries will not reach full penetration in the near future if the present trends continue.
► Knowledge, habits and social networks are key factors to respect in future initiatives.